Global Distribution
Where production sits today, the single technology that carries it, and the supply base it leans on.
Dominant pathway
Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids
One technology accounts for roughly 85 to 90 percent of fuel in production today. Every alternative pathway operates at the margin of this incumbent.
Production concentration
- 01USMandates and tax credits
- 02EUBlending mandates
- 03SingaporeRefining and export hub
HEFA feedstock base
0% UCOUsed cooking oil supplies roughly 70 to 80 percent of HEFA feedstock, a single-point-of-failure supply base concentrated on one waste stream.
Field note
South Africa's Sasol is already certified for export.
Emerging markets are not a first-mover void. A certified, export-grade producer already operates on the continent, so the field is materially more developed than the prevailing narrative suggests. Any strategy should assume an existing, credentialed competitor rather than open ground.
Steppe Constraints
The harsh reality of dryland farming in Kazakhstan, and the regulatory wall standing behind it.
National oilseed yield, 5-yr avg
0.00t / ha
Low and weather-exposed. Water stress and dryland conditions sharply limit output, constraining any model built on purpose-grown biomass.
Crop viability assessment
- CamelinaLow-input rotational crop only+ Viable
- MiscanthusNot suited to these conditions× Unsuitable
- CarinataNot suited to these conditions× Unsuitable
Under ICAO CORSIA, HEFA-eligible feedstock is limited to waste lipids: used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats.
Consequence
Purpose-grown energy and food crops are not HEFA-eligible. Growing a crop for HEFA is effectively a regulatory dead end in Kazakhstan. The agronomic ceiling and the regulatory wall point to one conclusion.
Refining Reality
Advanced biorefining is far more complex and capital-heavy than crude oil refining. Three pathways, rendered as spatial process graphs and compared on the dimensions that decide a project.
Schematic view
Alcohol-to-Jet
Commercially proven
Baseline 1x = conventional Jet A-1
- Feedstock
- Bioethanol from food-industrial waste
- Process
- Dehydration + synthesis
Comparative summary
| Pathway | Feedstock | Complexity | Capex | Cost vs Jet A-1 | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEFAHydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids | Waste lipids | Moderate | Lower | Most mature | |
| ATJAlcohol-to-Jet | Ethanol / waste | Moderate to high | Significant | Commercially proven | |
| FTFischer-Tropsch / Gasification-FT | MSW / residues | Very high | $2B - $5B | Most capital-heavy |
Across every pathway, SAF lands at roughly 2x to 4x the cost of conventional Jet A-1. Fischer-Tropsch carries the heaviest burden, a $2B to $5B capital commitment with cost near $2.00 to $2.25 per litre. Economics, not chemistry, set the order of preference.
Strategic Pivot
Regulation, agronomy, and economics converge on one defensible move: away from land and purpose-grown crops, toward waste-stream sourcing and the ATJ pathway.
Move away from
Buying grasslands & purpose-grown crops
Low dryland yields and the CORSIA waste-lipid restriction leave a grow-your-own model without a qualifying route to HEFA.
Move toward
Waste-stream sourcing & the ATJ pathway
Bioethanol from waste streams sidesteps the agronomic ceiling and the regulatory wall at once, and aligns with a project already underway.
LanzaJet × KazMunayGas (KMG) × KazFoodProducts
Kazakhstan's first SAF project deploys LanzaJet's proven alcohol-to-jet technology, using bioethanol from food-industrial waste. It has advanced to the engineering and design phase, with Kazakh SAF demand projected near 70,000 tonnes per year by 2030.
- Proven ATJ technology, commercially validated
- Bioethanol from food-industrial waste, no purpose-grown crops
- Advanced to engineering and design phase
projected by 2030
Regulation, agronomy and economics all point the same way.
The steppe does not support a grow-your-own feedstock model, and the regulation would not certify it if it did. The defensible position is waste-stream sourcing through ATJ, anchored by the LanzaJet and KazMunayGas project. This conclusion rests on the evidence above: HEFA's dominance and waste-lipid limits, the steppe's 1.22 t/ha ceiling, and the 2x to 4x cost reality of advanced refining.